#13 Within Borders

Geopolitics of Dam Building

🇪🇹 Who is funding Ethopia’s Renaissance Dam ?

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) finally nears completion. But behind the engineering feat lies a financing story: 91% of its costs were covered domestically.

The Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) revealed it financed over 91% of GERD’s $5 billion cost. This unusual model relied on domestic savings, diaspora bonds, and compulsory contributions. Unlike many African mega-projects dependent on foreign loans, GERD was deliberately shielded from external financing to maintain sovereignty. However, this also meant immense pressure on local banks, diverted funds from other sectors. Beyond money, GERD reshapes Nile geopolitics, straining Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan relations. Its inauguration is seen as both a symbol of national pride and a possible flashpoint for regional water conflict. The “self-reliant” financing model could inspire other African nations seeking independence from external creditors, but its sustainability remains contested.

More Debt

🇳🇬 Nigeria’s spiralling debt

Nigeria’s debt has hit ₦149 trillion. Conflicting official narratives expose tensions between parliament and the presidency, raising fears of a regional contagion effect on fiscal credibility.

Speaker Tajudeen Abbas warned that Nigeria’s debt—now ₦149.39 trillion—risks crowding out development. Finance Minister Wale Edun counters that reforms are boosting investor confidence, improving debt sustainability. Yet parliamentary debates show mistrust: Abbas accuses government of opacity, while critics blame him for enabling borrowing. Civil groups call for stricter fiscal oversight, fearing Nigeria’s crisis could spill over to neighbors who already lose billions annually to infrastructure damage from disasters. Coupled with fuel tax protests, concerns mount that Nigeria may enter a cycle of borrowing just to service debt. International lenders are watching: Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and a benchmark for West African markets. The IMF has quietly flagged risks to Nigeria’s external financing ability.

Nigeria’s debt debate is more than politics: it’s a test of Africa’s biggest economy’s credibility. Its outcome will shape regional finance access and the continent’s negotiating power in global markets.

️Climate Diplomacy

🤍☁️🌿🍃✨ How are African nations reshaping climate diplomacy ?

Addis Ababa hosted a major roundtable where African diplomats and researchers redefined climate diplomacy—focusing on innovation, negotiation capacity, and African-led sustainable development strategies.

The Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) and the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) convened a climate diplomacy roundtable in Ethiopia, with representatives from multiple African states. Discussions centered on the urgency of making Africa not just a recipient of climate aid but an active negotiator shaping global frameworks. African leaders also used the Second African Climate Change Conference to showcase local initiatives—from Ethiopia’s forest conservation to Senegal’s green hydrogen pilot. Yet fault lines emerged: Nigeria was notably absent at the summit, underscoring how domestic politics can dilute regional leadership. Participants stressed that climate finance mechanisms must reflect Africa’s priorities—resilience, food systems, and industrialization—rather than donor agendas. They also highlighted the role of indigenous innovation and Africa’s youth in defining solutions.

Africa’s climate diplomacy is maturing. By emphasizing agency and innovation, the continent is positioning itself as a policy shaper—not just a policy taker—in global climate governance.

Weather related cost

🌍 Africa is losing $ 12.7 Billion a year

A new report reveals African countries lose $12.7 billion annually from disaster-related infrastructure damage, exposing the costs of poor resilience planning and weak governance frameworks.

Natural disasters—from floods to droughts—are costing Africa nearly $13 billion every year. This staggering figure reflects both direct destruction and indirect losses through trade disruptions. Nigeria is among the hardest hit, alongside Southern African states. Analysts argue that the lack of resilient infrastructure design, weak enforcement of building codes, and underinvestment in early warning systems are driving these costs upward. In response, Nigeria’s Federal Roads Maintenance Agency (FERMA) has signed a two-year road management deal, but critics say the continent needs systemic approaches: resilient cities, better financing for disaster insurance, and climate-proof public works. International donors are pressing African countries to integrate disaster risk into fiscal planning. Without reform, analysts warn disaster-related losses may exceed the continent’s infrastructure investment by 2035.

Disaster-related costs are silent drains on African growth. Fixing resilience gaps is not just climate policy—it’s economic strategy. Ignoring this will undermine Africa’s infrastructure dreams.

African Skies

✈️ How is Africa’s sky being rewired ?

Rwanda and Senegal signed a new bilateral air services agreement, boosting regional integration, while Nairobi emerged as Kigali’s busiest air corridor hub.

Aviation is fast becoming a driver of African integration. Rwanda and Senegal formalized an air services agreement, expanding passenger and cargo routes. Meanwhile, the Nairobi–Kigali corridor has surpassed all others, illustrating East Africa’s growing interconnectivity. These developments come as intra-African trade forums highlight the importance of physical connectivity to realize AfCFTA goals. Beyond trade, such agreements expand tourism, student mobility, and cultural ties. However, challenges persist: high ticket prices, inadequate airport infrastructure, and fragmented air traffic management. Critics argue that without harmonization, Africa risks “sky silos.” Yet, with governments beginning to view aviation as economic infrastructure—not just luxury—policy reforms could accelerate. Airlines, too, are innovating, with Rwanda’s RwandAir and Kenya Airways positioning as regional hubs.

African aviation is shifting from isolated national carriers to integrated corridors. If sustained, these agreements may be the missing link in turning AfCFTA’s promise into lived reality.

Digital Bill

📲 What is behind Ecuador’s digital transformation bill ?

Ecuador’s Congress is advancing a sweeping digital transformation bill, signaling a structural pivot toward data economy governance in Latin America.

The bill aims to modernize Ecuador’s digital economy, emphasizing e-government, cybersecurity, and e-commerce regulation. Proponents argue it will streamline public services, strengthen trust, and unlock private innovation. Critics warn of uneven access: rural communities may lag behind urban beneficiaries. If implemented well, Ecuador could leapfrog peers, positioning itself as a regional digital hub. The reform mirrors African debates over digital inclusion, particularly Nigeria’s and Rwanda’s. Its success will depend on balancing innovation with strong consumer protection, data sovereignty, and bridging the digital divide.

Ecuador’s bill highlights how governance of digital economies is becoming central to development. For Africa, parallels abound—and lessons should be drawn carefully

Far right slide

🛝 Why is Argentina’s Milei losing ground ?

President Javier Milei’s party suffered a provincial election defeat, triggering market turmoil and raising doubts about the durability of his radical economic experiment.

Markets plunged after Milei’s party lost provincial elections. The peso depreciated, equities slumped, and capital flight fears resurfaced. Milei’s libertarian reforms—cutting public spending, dollarization rhetoric, and aggressive deregulation—have polarized Argentina. For investors, the defeat signals weakening legitimacy; reforms could stall, risking IMF negotiations and external financing. Critics argue his economic agenda sacrifices social stability, citing rising protests. Supporters maintain reforms are necessary to end chronic inflation. For Africa, Milei’s trajectory offers lessons: radical reform agendas without broad consensus can trigger instability, undermining both economic performance and investor confidence.

Argentina’s turmoil shows how economic orthodoxy clashes with social realities. Policy ambition needs political durability; without it, bold reforms risk becoming liabilities.

Singapore’s Energy Mix

⚡️ How is SIngapore rethinking its energy mix ?

Singapore is considering nuclear power to diversify its energy sources, reduce gas dependence, and confront climate obligations.

For decades, Singapore has depended on natural gas for over 95% of its power. But volatility in global gas markets and climate pledges have forced policymakers to explore alternatives. Nuclear power, once politically taboo, is now on the table, alongside hydrogen and carbon capture. The government’s feasibility studies will assess safety, land constraints, and public perception. Critics warn of risks in a dense city-state, while supporters argue that advanced small modular reactors (SMRs) offer a path forward. The debate underscores how even advanced economies must revisit energy orthodoxy.

Singapore’s cautious but serious approach to nuclear power exemplifies the global energy transition challenge: balancing climate goals, energy security, and political acceptability.

Chile’s balancing act

🇨🇱 How is Chile balancing growth and monetary stability ?

Chile and Peru are taking diverging paths on interest rates, exposing the policy dilemmas of Latin America’s commodity-dependent economies.

Chile has chosen caution, keeping interest rates elevated to fight inflation, while Peru is easing monetary policy to stimulate growth. These diverging strategies reveal trade-offs for resource-rich economies facing volatile global demand and high fiscal needs. Chile prioritizes price stability, even at growth costs, betting that investor confidence will anchor its long-term trajectory. Peru bets on stimulus, hoping to shield jobs and small firms. Analysts suggest these experiments will influence wider Latin American policy debates, as external shocks—from U.S. monetary tightening to China’s slowdown—ripple through.

Latin America’s diverging monetary strategies illustrate universal policy dilemmas: whether to privilege short-term growth or long-term stability. The results may shape future policy blueprints across emerging economies.